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Location: Pantego, Texas, United States

Thursday, October 25, 2007

I haven't been able to figure out what is meant by the global average temperature that is increasing according to the news media, though not according to the actual data that is presented. It turns out the average is based on readings from scattered sites around the world. The average is simply the maximum reading for the day added to the minimum reading, and then divided by 2. That could in fact be the average for the day for that site, but in general is not. In the vast majority of cases, if the temperature were recoded continuously and then integrated to get the average, it would be different from the average of the highest and lowest measurements of the day. Here in Texas during the Summer I've seen days when it was 100 F from noon until midnight, with temperature falling to 75 F at 6 AM and then rising to 100 F by noon. The max-min average is 87.5 F, but the true average is 93.75 F. During the winter the actual average could be lower than the simple max-min average. It is not clear to me that the reported average temperature has any significance at all. Particularly when daily temperature swings are 25 to 30 F, and the change in average temperature is less than 1 F over a century. Near Wichita Falls Texas there was once a temperature of 100 F at noon, and 0 F at midnight, a 100 F change in 12 hours. In such a case it is hard to see how a 1 F change in the average could even be detected.

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