Location: Pantego, Texas, United States

Friday, December 18, 2009

The Copenhagen conference is attempting to impose draconian reductions on the use of fossil fuels in order to limit the temperature change by 2 degrees C by 2100 (or maybe it was 2050). Here is a discussion of a paper that used statistical analysis to predict future temperature. This paper predicts a temperature rise of 0.2 degrees C by 2100, apparently regardless of what is done with regard to fossil fuel. The paper discusses the difficulty of modelling a chaotic, dynamic system using conventional fluid flow representations such as the Bernoulli and Euler equations. I always had good look with incompressible flow predictions with the Bernoulli equations. Analyzing rocket exhaust heating effects on structures and spacesuits was a bit more difficult. Using a lot of computer time we were eventually successful, and managed to design space systems that worked. Analyzing the climate of Earth is many orders of magnitude more difficult. I had absolutely no confidence in the ability of the UN IPCC modelers before the release of the Hadley CRU emails, and even less now with the revelations that they fudged the historical temperature data. I suppose statistical methods would be just as good as the voodoo that the UN IPCC is using. I have no confidence in any of the predictions. Basically I think it is beyond our capability to predict future climate, not only because there are significant unknown influences, and some of those are unknowable.


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