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Location: Pantego, Texas, United States

Saturday, June 24, 2006

The acknowledgement of the discovery of 500 or so artillery rounds (probably 155 mm) loaded with mustard gas and sarin has produced some interesting debates. Predictably the Republicans say it is proof that Saddam had WMD, and Democrats pooh, pooh the whole thing saying the weapons were old and had degraded so that they were harmless and prove nothing. Congresswoman Jane Harmon said on TV that they were no more dangerous than stuff under the kitchen sink. If not degraded the weapons would be quite lethal; reports are that Saddam's forces killed 5000 Kurds with just three sarin filled artillery rounds. It is true that sarin degades rapidly, probably within a few months. This is the reason that weapons designers use binary chemical concepts in which stable precursor chemicals are stored separately in the round, and are mixed as they are dispensed to create sarin. These weapons are lethal for indefinite periods. I don't know if the rounds found are the binary chemical type are not. Most countries wouldn't bother with a weapon with a shelf life of only a few months, but the Saddam regime was not rational, so they may have developed such a system. It is possible that the Iraqi's planned to mix the chemicals and put them into the round just prior to use. (This could be the explanation for the "chemical vans" found in Iraq, which were incredibly said to be used to support weather ballons. The possibility that this was the use concept is supported by the fact that many unfilled chemical rounds have been found in Iraq.) So, Congresswoman Jane Harmon could be correct if the rounds were not the binary chemical type. I haven't seen anything about which type they were. I have read of them being used in IEDs, and not being effective. I attributed this to the fact that binary chemical rounds need to be in flight to function properly, but maybe it was because the sarin was degraded. The mustard gas rounds are less ambiguous. World War I rounds containing mustard gas are still lethal, so there is no issue with regards to them.

Harmon seems to be more level-headed than most Democrats, which is a bit frightening in itself. She has said she didn't understand the NSA telephone intercept program when she was briefed on it because her science advisor was not permitted to attend. Maybe her science advisor knows that the sarin rounds found were not the binary type. I wouldn't bet one way or the other.

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