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Location: Pantego, Texas, United States

Monday, May 14, 2007

The latest IPCC Report says that 11 of the past 12 years have been the hottest on record, that is since the record started in 1850. That puts their spin on it. Another way to look at it is to say that the temperature hasn't gone up since 1998. The IPCC doesn't like that characterization since their computer models say that, barring volcanic eruption events, temperature should be going up at about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit per decade, and that is not happening now.

There are some other questions about the IPCC predictions that have not been answered. For example, the IPCC results say that temperature should increase particularly at the poles. The arctic temperature has been increasing, but the temperature over 80% of antarctica has been declining. That is not what would be expected if an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is what is causing the warming. The temperature increase experienced has been confined almost entirely to continental regions at high northern latitudes, Alaska, Canada and Siberia in particular. The temperature of the southeastern United States has actually declined over the last thirty years.

Here is another question. Temperature went up about 1 degree Fahrenheit during the nineteenth century before significant amounts of carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere as compared to about 1.1 degree Fahrenheit in the twentieth century. Why should we think that whatever mechanism caused the temperature increase during the nineteenth century stopped working at the start of the twentieth century and was completely replaced by greenhouse gas warming? Another question we should answer; what caused the temperature increase in the nineteenth century? For that matter, what caused the temperature decrease during the fourteenth century? If we can't answer those questions it is pretty arrogant to think we can predict future temperature.

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