Name:
Location: Pantego, Texas, United States

Friday, January 16, 2009

Here is some interesting news from the blog "Greenie Watch:"

Hansen comes clean at last?

Maybe the attack on his numbers by Lubos Motl and others was the last straw. I am advised by email that NASA's Hansen has at last released his "data adjustment" computer code to Steve McIntyre -- after a lot of pressure from Steve to do just that. I assume it is FORTRAN code -- a la Michael Mann. It would be a lot simpler if Hansen had just released his algorithms but the FORTRAN code should eventually reveal what they were/are. As I know from experience, backtracking through someone else's FORTRAN code is very difficult at any time, however, and I hear that Hansen's code is far from elegant, so it will be some time before we know much.

I think there is a strong possibility that Hansen has simply adjusted his code from time to time in an ad hoc way rather than setting up a systematic theory first -- and there is much potential for cumulative errors in doing that. I don't envy Steve his disentangling task. Hansen may be relying on it being impossible.

The one who has not released his methods is Phil Jones of CRU.


Back when my Congressman, Joe Barton, forced Michael Mann to release his data and algorithms it was found that the famous Mann Hockeystick was not valid. (The hockeystick curve was used by the IPCC as the scientific basis for claims that late 20th century global warming was caused by mankind, but they ignored the loss in credibility in their primary data.) It may be some time before we know if there are any serious deficiencies in Hansen's data, since figuring out the FORTRAN code will take some time. Phil Jones did the work that says that the urban island heat effect is not significant in the late 20th century. Jones has said he will not give his data to other researchers because "they only want to prove him wrong." That is a curious position for a scientist to take. Usually scientists want other researchers to review their work. One of the problems that has been suggested regarding Jones's work is the location of the temperature monitoring stations used in the study. It is know that several of the stations were moved over time, in some instances to new locations on the outskirts as towns grew. This obvioously calls into question the validity of using these data to say that urban temeratures have not significantly increased. For example here in Texas, it is usually hotter in Dallas than in the nearby but smaller Fort Worth, and hotter in both of those cities than in the surrounding rural areas.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home