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Location: Pantego, Texas, United States

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

In case anyone is interested here is a comment that has links to the two most widely used General Circulation Models, NASA/GISS model E and NASA GISTEMP. These two models are the ones most commonly cited as proving that the the global warming hypothesis is correct. The makers of these models admit that the software is poorly written. I read a comment by GCM modeler Gavin Schmidt the other day in which he said that the chaotic nature of climate makes it theoretically impossible to predict climate events more than two weeks into the future. He also pointed out, as I have discussed before, that two models do not produce the same results, and in fact are often widely dissimilar. One model will predict future long term drought in the Southwestern US, while another model will predict excessive rainfall and flooding for that area. Kevin Trenberth, a leader of modeling at NASA/GISS has said that the GCMs do not make predictions, but rather make projections. I take that to mean that they are good for doing what I call parametric analysis; that is where you vary certain inputs to see what will happen. Here is a question that I have: since the experts do not believe predictions the models that they use to convince politicians and the public that catastrophic manmade global warming is real, why do they think catastrophic man-made global warming is real? Since they are alleged to be scientists, they must have some reason other than a religious-like belief. So, what is their real reason for their belief? Recently Richard Lindzen, Professor of Meteorology at MIT, said regarding man-made climate change fears, that ordinary people see through it, but educated people are vulnerable to it.

If anyone who is familiar with software is interested, take a look at NASA/GISS model E, which is written in Fortran, and let me know what you think of it. Reports are that it is very poorly written, and is hard to make run at all. I used to deal with Fortran programs that were like that.

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