There is a lot of talk now about the Bakken Shale. It is claimed to contain 400 to 500 billion barrels of oil. Some experts claim that less than 1% of that oil is recoverable. Actually this sort of estimate should say recoverable at current prices and with current technology. For example, 20 years ago the amount of recoverable natural gas in the Barnett Shale and the Haynesville shale was trivial. Now the amount is estimated at over 300 trillion cubic feet. The techniques that made the natural gas production from the Barnett Shale, such as horizontal drilling, 3D seismograph, slick water frac, and multi-zone frac also make the Bakken Shale attractive. The wells that are now being drilled in the Bakken using these techniques are pretty good with initial production of around 2000 barrels per day with EUR of over 1 million barrels. The price of oil definitely affects the amount of oil that can be produced. The 1% recoverable estimate is probably based on an oil price of about $40 per barrel. A well with an EUR of 1 million barrels that costs $6 million to drill would produce an income of $40 million, making it economical. A $6 million well with an EUR of 100,000 barrels would only generate $4 million at this same $40 per barrel, so would not be economical. But, at $200 per barrel, it would be. I don't have any data, but I suspect that at an oil price of $200 per barrel it might be that the Bakken would be in the range of 30% recoverable. That might also be the price at which many of the potential alternative energy sources would be
economical. At $120 per barrel, the Bakken could easily yield about 2 million barrels per day for many years. No one will drill those wells until it is certain that the price of oil will stay in the $120/barrel price range.