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Location: Pantego, Texas, United States

Monday, March 16, 2009

I made an "A" in Thermodynamics, which is good, but I didn't understand economics so well. I understand why economics is called "the dismal science." The United States is now increasing the nation's debts to levels that are hard to even contemplate. We are about to borrow several trillion dollars. It would seem logical that we will soon have a significant inflation, probably worse than during the Carter years. But, some say that we are going to have to guarantee to the lenders, which are other nations, that we will not use inflation to pay back the money with inflated dollars. We also have a lot of underfunded pension plans and entitlement programs. Most states and many cities have pension plans that allow employees to retire and eventually receive a pension that was more than they were ever paid. Some cities in Texas are threatened with bankruptcy because of their pension programs. On top of that, Obama is proposing new entitlement programs. It is clear that the United States is going to have to raise taxes a lot. This will limit the growth of the economy, limiting the ability to grow out of the debt. (Obama thinks that government spending on entitlements will cause the government to grow, but nothing in history suggests that is likely.) The long-term economic outlook for the United States is grim. It appears to me that we are about to be involved in an economic war that is the first stage of a shooting war. We are dealing with radical, suicidal people who are about to have nuclear weapons. It is doubtful to me that Obama's appeasement approach will work with our adversaries. If Obama's approach fails, then we will be in a chaotic situation, so it doesn't matter what personal investment options we make. If he succeeds, then we need successful personal investments, but I don't have a clue as to what that should be. I hear a lot of conflicting opinions on TV. Some say buy gold and other commodities, but others say short gold. Some say buy TIPS bonds. Some say short treasury bonds. It is a dilemma. I'm trying to figure out what to do.

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